Agreement & Certainty Matrix

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(Items in the above list that are marked with an asterisk have my notes in them)

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Sort challenges into simple, complicated, complex and chaotic domains

You can help individuals or groups avoid the frequent mistake of trying to solve a problem with methods that are not adapted to the nature of their challenge.

  1. A problem is simple when it can be solved reliably with practices that are easy to duplicate.
    1. simple is like following a recipe
  2. It is complicated when experts are required to devise a sophisticated solution that will yield the desired results predictably.
    1. complicated is like sending a rocket to the moon
  3. A problem is complex when there are several valid ways to proceed but outcomes are not predictable in detail.
    1. complex is like raising a child
  4. Chaotic is when the context is too turbulent to identify a path forward.
    1. chaotic is like the game “Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”