Critical Uncertainties

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(Items in the above list that are marked with an asterisk have my notes in them)

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Develop strategies for operating in a range of plausible yet unpredictable futures

  • Have a group large and diverse enough to break it up into four separate small groups to develop the four scenarios and related strategies
  • If not, make two small groups
  1. Invite participants to make a list of uncertainties they face by asking, “In your/our operating environment, what factors are impossible to predict or control their direction?”
  2. Prioritize the most critical factors by asking, “Which factors threaten your/our ability to operate successfully?” 10 min.
  3. Based on the group’s history and experience, select the two most critical and most uncertain (X and Y).
  • (This is complicated. See the Field Guide entry...)